Challenges in the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions

(MainsGS2: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.)

Context:

• The Indian Ocean and South Asian regions are at the heart of new fault lines considering their geo-political and geo-economic prominence and India’s emergence as a major power.
• As tensions between an aggressive China and an emerging India intensify, New Delhi’s Quad partners are also making inroads in its backyard, ushering significant changes in the region.

China’s influence in region:

• China has long tried to mark its influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean regions and enhance its strategic ambitions, namely, to limit Indian influence, military power, and status and to sustain its energy supply and economic growth.
• Beijing’s outreach in South Asia increased manifold in the early 2000s with its economic boom and it began to further its strategic ends in the region through loans, financial incentives, and mega-infrastructure projects; this became more institutionalised with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013.
• Subsequently, these investments enabled Beijing to access the Indian Ocean, promote political and security ties in the region, harbour military vessels and submarines, and take certain islands and ports on lease.
• Beijing hosted its first-ever China-Indian Ocean Region Forum, to institutionalize its presence in the region and challenge new initiatives such as the Quad and the Colombo Security Conclave.

India’s engagement:

• After the Galwan clash, New Delhi has re-energised diplomatic efforts in its backyard.
• In the Maldives, New Delhi is reciprocating President Ibrahim Solih’s ‘India First’ policy with massive economic assistance, grants, and infrastructure projects and by also cooperating on maritime security.
• In Nepal, Nepal's government has attempted to improve Nepal’s overall bilateral relations with India.
• In crisis-hit Sri Lanka, India, this year alone, has provided economic and humanitarian assistance and investments worth $4 billion.
• India’s leading efforts in South Asia and the Indian Ocean have also attracted other Quad members (Japan, Australia, and the United States).

Balancing act:

• Beijing will continue to leverage its financial and economic might and political influence in South Asia and South Asian countries would hesitate to completely move away from China as they hope to exercise their agency by balancing with China and India.
• Such a balancing outcome is very likely with most South Asian countries now facing economic and political turmoil due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
•  Energy shortages, inflation, and negative or slow economic growth are also disrupting day-to-day activities in these countries.
• But, New Delhi and its partners, which have only started to make recent gains against China, should be ready to embrace these challenges.

Conclusion:

• While the possibility of a two-front war persists, Pakistan’s strategic isolation, economic and political fallout, and border and terror challenges emanating from Afghanistan have minimised the likelihood of its aggression. 
• On the other hand, Beijing’s larger strategic and diplomatic presence and grand ambitions have continued to trigger angst for New Delhi.