Climate Change and Temperature

Reference:

The World Meteorological Organization has declared the year 2024 as the hottest year ever since the recording of temperatures began. This year the average annual temperature of the Earth was 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels (period 1850-1900).

India's Situation:

• The India Meteorological Department has also declared the year 2024 as the hottest year for India. However, the extent of temperature rise in India is very different from the rest of the world.
• According to the IMD, the temperature in the year 2024 was 0.65 degrees Celsius higher than the normal average temperature of the period 1991-2020.

Temperature rise in India and the world and the baseline of comparison

• The average of the period 1901-1910 is considered a more useful baseline for comparing temperature rise in India with the world. IMD data shows that the temperature in India in 2024 was about 1.2°C higher than the average of 1901-1910.
• However, this is not a balanced baseline of comparison as the temperature rise in India takes into account only the land surface temperature rise. On the other hand, the global temperature rise takes into account the average of the temperature of the land as well as the oceans.
• The land surface has warmed much more than the oceans because the oceans have a greater capacity to cool themselves through the process of evaporation. The warm water evaporates, leaving the rest of the ocean relatively cooler.
• Global land surface and ocean temperature rise projections for 2024 are not readily available, but past data suggest land surface temperatures have risen by more than 1.6°C from pre-industrial levels, while oceans have risen by about 0.9°C.

Reasons for difference in India and global warming

• The 1.2°C temperature rise in India is much less than the 1.6°C or more global land surface warming. There are various reasons for this:
  • India is located in the tropical region, close to the equator. Global warming has been more pronounced at higher altitudes, near the polar regions, than near the equator. This is due to the complex complexities of atmospheric phenomena that involve the transfer of heat from the tropics to the poles through prevailing systems of air circulation.
  •  Most of the world's land surface is located at high altitudes. Polar regions, especially the Arctic, have seen a significant increase in temperature. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Arctic region has seen a temperature increase at least twice that of the global average.

Challenges:

• India’s landmass is not uniform. The average temperature increase in India does not reflect the different levels of warming experienced in different parts of the country.
  • For example, the nature and impact of temperature increase in the Himalayas is very different than in coastal areas. India’s vulnerability to climate change is very high.
• Global climate models do not accurately reflect the changes due to climate change occurring in the Indian region and global regions.
  • Other weather and climate agencies like the Indian Institute of Tropical Management in Pune or the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Systems in Hyderabad also face challenges related to data accuracy.
• The first India-specific climate change impact assessment was done in the year 2020. This has created a huge gap in the understanding of the threats posed by climate change, mainly due to the lack of assessment of climate change impacts in a timely manner. However, this needs to be a continuous exercise.
• Expanding the weather monitoring network and strengthening computing and analysis capabilities is a pre-requisite. Mission Mausam has been launched for this purpose.

What should be done:

• For a developed India in the year 2047, at least every village in the country should have a weather monitoring station.
• IMD is going to play an important role in the social and economic life of the country. Till some time ago, it used to provide only information about rainfall or temperature, which was of limited use.
• Currently, its weather information is important for disaster management, power generation management, transportation, tourism and event management. Its capabilities need to be strengthened to make it more effective and useful.
• India needs to strengthen its capabilities in climate observation and impact assessment and the monitoring network over the oceans surrounding the Indian landmass is still inadequate. This needs immediate attention.