India's nuclear weapons on the rise: SIPRI report

Reference

With 172 nuclear weapons, India has now overtaken Pakistan in the ranking of nuclear-armed countries worldwide, according to the 2024 annual review of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Major conclusion of the report 

With respect to India

• Increase in number of warheads: India's nuclear arsenal has increased marginally. India had 164 nuclear warheads in January 2023 which has increased to 172 by January 2024.
  • With this increase, India has come to 6th place among the nuclear-armed countries of the world.
• Long-range capability: There has been a significant shift in India's current weapons towards enhanced long-range capabilities, potentially extending to targets within China.

On a global scale

• Global armament: The United States leads the world in terms of nuclear capabilities, followed by Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
  • In January 2024, the global inventory consisted of approximately 12,121 nuclear weapons, of which approximately 9,585 were held in military stockpiles. About 3,904 of these warheads are deployed with missiles and aircraft, representing an increase of 60 from January 2023, while the remainder are in central storage.
  • Russia and the United States collectively possess about 90% of the world's nuclear weapons.
  • Both these countries have more than 1,200 retired weapons, which are gradually being destroyed.
• Countries with high operational alert weapons,About 2,100 deployed weapons are on high operational alert, which are mainly held by Russia and the United States.
  • China has joined this category for the first time.
• Modernization of nuclear arsenals: Nine nuclear-weapon nations, including the United States, Russia, France, China, India, and Pakistan, are continuing to modernize their nuclear arsenals.
  • Apart from these, many countries are deploying new nuclear-capable weapon systems in the year 2023.

Status of different countries in the report

• China: China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country.
  • Its nuclear arsenal is scheduled to increase from 410 in January 2023 to 500 by January 2024.
• Pakistan: Pakistan has not recorded any increase in the number of warheads in the last one year. It has a total of 170 nuclear warheads.
• Britain: Britain is planning to expand its warhead stockpile after the British government decided to increase the warhead limit from 225 to 260 in the year 2021.
  • Additionally, the UK has stopped publicly disclosing details of its nuclear arsenal, including quantities of weapons, deployed warheads and missiles.
• France: It continues to develop new nuclear systems through 2023, including a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine and a new air-launched cruise missile.
• North Korea: North Korea focuses on its military nuclear program as a key element of its national security strategy.
  • SIPRI estimates that North Korea has accumulated about 50 nuclear weapons and has enough fissile material to potentially increase its total number of nuclear weapons to 90.
• israeli, It has not officially acknowledged its nuclear weapons, but is reportedly modernising its nuclear arsenal and expanding plutonium production capabilities at Dimona.

Nuclear diplomacy weakens amid war in Ukraine and Gaza

• According to SIPRI, nuclear arms control and disarmament diplomacy will suffer major setbacks in the year 2023.
• Russia's actions:
  • Suspension of the New START Treaty: In February 2023, Russia suspended its participation in the 2010 New START Treaty, the only nuclear arms control agreement limiting the strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia. 
    • In response, the US stopped sharing and publishing treaty data.
  • Withdraws ratification from CTBT: In November 2023, Russia withdraws its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
    • It is noteworthy that the US has not ratified the treaty since its inception in 1996.
• Iran-US tensions: Proxy attacks by Iran-backed groups on US forces in Iraq and Syria apparently put an end to Iranian-US diplomatic efforts.
  • The `Gaza war also undermined efforts to include Israel in the Conference on Establishing a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction.
• End of the Iran-US deal in June 2023: The deal was aimed at reducing tensions arising from Iranian support to Russia in Ukraine.
  • However, the start of the Israel–Hamas war in October 2023 put an end to this agreement.