Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence

Context

Japan marks 75^th anniversary of Hiroshima nuclear bombing on August 6; increasing role of nuclear deterrence amidst rising nuclear stockpile and the rising tensions across the globe.

Background

Given the enormous tensions concerning the unresolved Sino-Indian border issue and simultaneous face-off in South China Sea between US and China, a new international nuclear regime is in the process of evolution.

Nuclear Deterrence

The philosophy of nuclear deterrence was born out of the symbiosis of the principle of military deterrence and the emergence of nuclear weapons. Intimidating an enemy with the threat of military force—to keep it from pursuing unacceptable actions or to force it into desired behavior, It has long been considered a political and psychological function of armies and fleets before they enter into combat actions.

The creation and use of the atomic bomb in 1945 did not immediately give rise to the idea of nuclear deterrence. At first, nuclear weapons were seen only as a new means of warfare, albeit one with unprecedented destructive power.

The idea of nuclear deterrence came to the forefront of U.S. military policy. Of course, it was based on real nuclear forces and operational plans for their use. This qualitative shift laid the foundation for formulating the philosophy that nuclear weapons play a predominantly political role, rather than a military one.

Nuclear Deterrence in Indian Perspective

Nuclear deterrence can serve as a pillar of international security only in conjunction with negotiations and agreements on the limitation, reduction, and nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. Without them, deterrence fuels an endless arms race, while any serious crisis between the great powers will bring them to the brink of nuclear war.

India believes that nuclear weapons are political weapons, not weapons of war-fighting. Their sole purpose is to deter the use and threat of use of nuclear weapons.

India’s nuclear doctrine is built around the concept of ‘credible minimum deterrence’ and a ‘no first use’ (NFU) posture. As a corollary to its NFU posture, India has declared its intention of launching massive retaliation if there is a first strike on India. Consequently, India follows a policy of ‘deterrence by punishment’ through a ‘counter value’ targeting strategy aimed at inflicting unacceptable damage, as against a ‘counter force’ strategy aimed at destroying the adversary’s nuclear forces.

India’s nuclear force structure comprises a land, sea and air-based triad: Agni-I to IV IRBMs manned by the Missile Groups of the Indian Army; nuclear glide bombs under-slung on Mirage 2000 and SU-30 MKI fighter-bomber aircraft of the Indian Air Force; and, in due course, SLBMs on SSBNs with the Indian Navy. While INS Arihant, the first indigenously designed nuclear submarine, has been made fully operational, a second SSBN is reported to be under construction.

Deterrence on the Battlefield

India has willingly abjured the use of ‘tactical’ or ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons as these are inherently destabilizing. Tactical nuclear weapons are mainly employed against armed forces targets in the TBA (tactical battle area) and tend to lower the threshold of use due to the proclivity to ‘use them or lose them’. These also involve complicated command and control mechanisms, enhance the risk of unauthorised and accidental launches and are complex and costly to manufacture and maintain.

The total number of warheads that India needs for credible minimum deterrence in a NFU scenario, has not been articulated by the government. In the views of Indian analysts, the requirement varies from a few dozen warheads at the lower end of the scale to over 400 warheads at the upper end. In terms of yield these range from 10 to 12 kilotons to megaton monsters.

Unlike in China, which has an authoritarian regime, and in Pakistan, where the army calls the shots on key policy issues, India’s nuclear weapons are firmly under civilian control and the recent appointment of Chief of Defense Staff to provide single-point military advice to the government streamlined the process.

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)

The NPT is a landmark international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament. The Treaty represents the only binding commitment in a multilateral treaty to the goal of disarmament by the nuclear-weapon States. Opened for signature in 1968, the Treaty entered into force in 1970. On 11 May 1995, the Treaty was extended indefinitely.

The Treaty is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy

It classifies signatory nations on two broad aspects, Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) and Non Nuclear Weapons State (NNWS). NWS states are USA, Russia, China, France and United Kingdom.

Currently only five countries have not signed NPT which are, India, Pakistan, Israel, South Sudan and North Korea.

Conclusion

India has consistently been a strong advocate of total or universal nuclear disarmament. The Nehruvian policy did not change even after the Pokhran tests of May 1998 as nuclear disarmament is seen to be in India’s interest. Despite not having signed the NPT, India has complied with all the provisions of these treaties and supports the early conclusion of discussions on the FMCT.

India views these international treaties as important enablers of non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament measures that are necessary for regional and international peace and stability. India has voluntarily renounced further nuclear testing and has an unblemished non-proliferation record among the nuclear weapons powers.

India is willing to discuss and institute nuclear CBMs and nuclear risk reduction measures (NRRMs) with both China and Pakistan, but its overtures have not been suitably reciprocated. China still does not recognise India as a nuclear power and refuses to discuss nuclear CBMs. The nuclear CBMs in place with Pakistan are cosmetic in nature and need to be upgraded to more substantive ones.

Connecting the Article

Question for Prelims

With reference to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, consider the following statements:

1. It was signed to complete disarmament of nuclear weapons.
2. All permanent members of the Security Council are its signatories.

Which of the Statements given above is/ are correct ?

(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2

Question for Mains

‘Nuclear deterrence not only protects countries against the use of nuclear weapons on others, but even prevents war and promotes stability.’ Comment