Redefine relationship with Russia

(Mains GS 2 : Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests, Indian Diaspora.)

Context:

• Indian foreign policy is going to be affected by Russia’s war on Ukraine in a profound manner which has always remained pro-Russian.
• Indian sentiments for pro Russia are rooted in Moscow’s support during the Cold War era, particularly against the pro-Pakistani diplomatic activism by powerful Western countries in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

Independent and balanced:

• Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, is moving closer to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the hope of membership may be a sufficient reason for Russia to be infuriated, but it is still an insufficient condition for Ukraine to be attacked in violation of all norms of international law.
• However, India has not directly criticised Moscow’s action as memories of the historic Indo-Soviet partnership still seem to tip the scales when it comes to India’s vote at the UNSC.
• Western countries have criticised India’s repeated abstentions at the UNSC on the issue of the Russian invasion, while the Kremlin has praised India for taking an “independent and balanced” position.

Foreign policy conundrum:

• President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine has put New Delhi in a foreign policy conundrum that will not disappear soon because Russia’s action has changed the global order.
• The Western world has imposed unprecedented sanctions against Russia and banned energy imports.
• New Delhi is concerned about the impact of these sanctions on global finance, energy supplies, and transportation, amid growing signs that they will constrain India’s ability to import Russian oil.

Strategic challenge:

• China’s blatant attempts to project its rising power as well as Russia’s threats against its “near abroad” will continue to test India’s strategic choices.
• India is worried by the fact that Russia will now become increasingly dependent on Chinese support to defend its policies.
• India’s real strategic challenge is surfacing in the Indo-Pacific with the rise of China, as Beijing has consistently sought to expand its zone of military, economic and political influence through the Belt and Road Initiative. 
• Moreover, instead of smoothing the ruffled edges of India’s insecurities, which are rooted in an undefined boundary, China has only aggravated them further. 
• Though India would like the U.S. to continue to focus on China, it is not possible for Washington to ignore Russia’s aggression along NATO’s periphery.

Promote a multi-polar world:

• Since the end of the Cold War, Indians have been debating the contours of strategic autonomy as for some, the notion is a re-branding of India’s non-aligned posture during the Cold War and for others the doctrine of ‘multi-alignment’ is the 21st century avatar of strategic autonomy as India has been expanding its engagement with all the major powers.
• Former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s advocacy of neutrality in the bloc politics was justified in the pursuit of an independent post-colonial foreign policy.
• The Soviet Union was seen as a trustworthy partner against Western hegemony but following the disintegration of the USSR, India joined Russia and China against the unipolarity of the U.S.
• The purpose of this trilateral initiative was to promote a multi-polar world to constrain the U.S.’s unbridled power and ambition.
• Thus, India was determined to maintain its partnership with Russia, an important arms supplier but its ties with the U.S. have also improved significantly since the end of the Cold War.

Think seriously:

• Indians echoing Russian resentment against the eastward expansion of NATO are reminded by Western analysts that a NATO-Russia Council was formed specifically to alleviate Russia’s concerns.
• Russia was recognised as one of the world’s leading industrial powers through a formal admission into the elite G-7 not on the basis of its industrial might, but to soften its bruised superpower ego.
• Though Moscow has drifted much closer to Beijing, and is sharply critical of India’s engagement with the U.S. and the Quad, India finds it difficult to extend support to Ukraine.
• Thus policymakers in and around the government must think seriously about India’s relations with Russia as the unfolding Ukrainian tragedy has introduced a new era in international relations.

Conclusion:

• It is not going to be easy for New Delhi to maintain its balancing act in the future as Washington hardens its position further.
• Thus, it is inevitable that during this time of diplomatic and strategic uncertainty, New Delhi needs to be ready to radically redefine its relationship with Moscow.