Role of Indian Diaspora in US Election 2020

In September last year, when over 50,000 Indians gathered for the hyped up Howdy Modi event in Houston, it was the largest-ever political meeting addressed by a foreign leader in the United States. Yet, instead of being uneasy about political activities of a foreign politician, US President Donald Trump not only welcomed the meeting, but also turned up at the NRG Stadium to share the dais with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Indeed, it was seen as a win-win by both. For Modi, it marked the highpoint of his proactive policy of connecting with Indian diaspora. Trump got his reward when Modi broke all diplomatic protocols to endorse Trump’s re-election bid asking the Indian diaspora to vote for him. For Trump, the other objective of participating in the Houston meet was the relatively deep purse of an average member of the Indian diaspora, the richest ethnic group in the country, in order to fund his re-election bid.

Indeed, as the 2020 Presidential campaign enters its final weeks, both the Democrats and the Republicans have reinforced their efforts to woo the Indian community. In order to connect with Indian populace in the US, the Democratic Party’s candidate former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign team announced the launch of its massive outreach programme in 14 languages, acknowledging the linguistic diversity of the ethnic community.

The Democratic campaigning took a cue from Indian electoral politics and coined the slogan ‘America Ka Neta Kaisa Ho, Joe Biden Jaisa Ho’ (America’s leader should be like Joe Biden), and this is just one of many examples. The slogan was created to generate enthusiasm among Indian-American voters in the US, just like it is widely used in India during election campaigns and rallies.

The Democrats are working closely with the Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) Team to communicate directly with Indian-American citizens in more than 14 languages, which includes Hindi, Punjabi, Tamil, Telugu, Bengali, Urdu, Kannada, Malayalam, Oriya, Marathi and Nepali.

The rise of a strict nationalist narrative in India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has largely helped shift the political paradigm for the diaspora, who strongly identify with India’s rising stature in the global arena. Indian Americans are the second-largest immigrant group in the US after Mexicans.

In February this year, a few days after President Donald Trump flew back from his visit to India after “Namaste Trump” event, joined by a massive rally with 100,000 supporters, the Republican presidential campaign launched a few digital ads focussed for a very specific demographic in the US-Indian Americans.

One Facebook ad featured Trump and First Lady Melania Trump standing in front of Taj Mahal. “Indian Americans are titans of business, masters of the arts and innovate technology like few others,” the ad read. “Your contributions have strengthened our culture and economy. I will always fight for you!” Another one said “America loves India,” and featured a photo of Trump and Modi together. “Our economies have never been better, and the United States is eager to build a strong partnership with India.”

Education linkages between India and the US are one of the strongest in the world, and any discourse around Indian diaspora is incomplete without talking about students. From just one student in 1883, US universities now house more than 200,000 Indian students. Indian students who went to the US for higher education contributed over $8 billion in 2018-19 to the US economy.

Hence, addressing the matters of education among the diaspora is a key element. Another digital advertisement showed a photograph of PM Modi and listed education policies the Trump administration backs, including tax breaks to support private and religious school scholarships.

With so many accolades for the Indian diaspora in US presidential election campaigns from the both parties, and expansion of slogans and digital advertisements aiming to appease the community; it will be rather interesting to witness the role Indian diaspora plays in the upcoming elections, set to take place in November this year.

Media reports quote Amit Jani, the national AAPI director for the Biden campaign as saying that the Indian-American community has grown in size, influence and in political and civic involvement. More Indian-Americans are joining politics and government.

Indeed, irrespective of who the winner is on the night of November 3, expect the Indian American community to play an increasingly important role in the new White House team as well as in various states of the US.

With the US Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden expanding the lead over President Donald Trump in various opinion polls, Indian and Jewish diaspora in the US have asked the governments in New Delhi and Tel Aviv, respectively, to tread cautiously and not appear favoring a particular candidate.

Although both communities are highly polarized, with a majority of them supporting Democrats, the incumbent governments in India and Israel have been rooting for the return of Trump to the White House for another term.

In turn, Trump has also used pictures in the company of prime ministers of India and Israel, Narendra Modi and Benjamin Netanyahu, to woo large sections of the Indian and Jewish communities.

Head of the US-India Security Council Ramesh Kapur has asked Modi to see the trend and not put all the eggs in one basket. There is a similar message to Netanyahu from the powerful American Jewish Committee, one of its officer bearers told Anadolu Agency.

Explaining the unpredictability of the 2020 elections, Chemi Shaler, a Washington-based senior columnist of Israeli newspaper Haaretz, said that unlike 2016, Biden has twice as big an average lead as Hillary Clinton had in 2016.

“If voting is held today, Biden would certainly win. But we are dealing with Donald Trump, who can pack decades of events into single hours. I would say Biden is on course to win, but that course could still include many obstacles,” he told a selected online audience in an event organized by Haaretz.

Small numbers but Big Influence

In terms of numbers, both the communities (Indian & Jews) are minuscule, but their wealth and permeation in the establishment and the traditional power bastions like Ivy League universities, premier think-tanks, the judicial system, and, most notably in politics has made them an essential commodity for the presidential nominees.

According to the 2019 American Jewish Year Book, the number of Jews is estimated at 6.97 million, which makes them just 2% of the US population. The Indian diaspora is much fewer in numbers, just 4.4 million in the overall 331 million population of the country, according to the US Census American Survey.

Although among other Asian diaspora communities, Chinese stand at 5 million, Philippines 4 million, Pakistanis 544,000, and Bangladeshis 185,000, they appear less significant in the electoral scene in terms of better organization and influence in the system. Among the immigrants, Indians have shown the highest growth -- 38% in 2011-2017.

With less than a month to go, when the US will vote on Nov. 3, and the gaps between the candidates unpredictable, both parties are trying to woo voters from every community to win the race for the White House.

According to Mukesh Aghi, the CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum, the Indian community may be small in numbers, but their near-total participation in the electoral process makes them important for the candidates. He said the Indian immigrant vote has also gone up by 147% since 2000.

Quoting a survey, Aghi said that in the US elections, the voting share of a group is directly proportional to its income and education. In the last presidential election, 78% of people with annual incomes of $150,000 or more came out to vote, while among those with a $10,000 annual income, just 41% took pains to walk to polling booths to participate in electoral exercise.

Less interest in India-US relations

While Trump’s acceptability has increased among Indians from 22% in the previous election to 28% this year, the second generation of his community is less enthusiastic about the US policy towards India, according to Aghi.

Aghi further said that Indian-Americans have been the largest contributors in the electoral funding in terms of per capita. They have contributed more than $3 million to the 2020 presidential campaigns so far. Noted Indian American industrialist Shalabh “Shalli” Kumar had donated a whopping $898,800 for the campaign of Trump in 2016.

Making a comparison of policies of two candidates vis a vis India, Kapur said Biden’s policy will be more multilateral and he expects India to play a pivotal role in the Quad partnership including Japan, US, and Australia to counter China.

He said Trump's policy so far has been transactional based on charisma. Both Indian diaspora leaders, however, said New Delhi should not expect any concession on the issue of H1B visas, which allow US employers to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations, as it was linked to American jobs.

Biden traditional support for India

While the Indian establishment has been concerned at Biden’s recent statements about India’s new citizenship law that is discriminating against Muslims as well as his opposition to revoking the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, Kapur, who heads the US-India Security Council, reminds that India had narrowly escaped sanctions following 1975 nuclear tests because of Biden’s vote in the Senate.

The resolution was defeated in the House by just one vote. Also, while the former Republican President George Bush had signed the Indo-US nuclear deal, it was approved by the US Congress, only due to the active support of Democrat Biden in 2008.

Indian diaspora leaders are expecting the new administration to clear the Export Control Act, to allow India to be included in the proposed NATO plus five alliance. This proposed arrangement includes Japan, South Korea, Israel, Australia, and New Zealand. “We are trying our best to prevail in Washington to make India its sixth member,” said Kapur.

“I think it hurts his cause, and if anyone cares about the Jewish vote, they would know that there are voters who might otherwise be convinced to support him based on his relationship with Israel. But they hear these things and it makes it impossible for them to support him,“ Kaplan Sommer said.

Scaling the Heights:

Preliminary Q: In how many languages did the Democratic Party’s candidate former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign team announce the launch of its massive outreach programme, acknowledging the linguistic diversity of the ethnic community.

(a) in 14 languages
(b) in 12 languages
(c) in 10 languages
(d) in 16 languages

Mains Q: Why Indian and Jewish diaspora in the US have asked the governments in New Delhi and Tel Aviv, respectively, to tread cautiously and not appear favouring a particular candidate ? In view of his recent remarks in respect of suspension of Article 370 in J&K and citizenship law, do you think, winning of Joe Biden in the presidential election of US would not prove beneficial for India? Give strong arguments in favour or against the statement.