State of J&K after suspension of Article 370 & 35A

Introduction

The long-drawn armed conflict in Kashmir has claimed thousands of lives and made the economy bleed, and has posed grave threats to the country’s security. It was in 1989 when the insurgency was born, as an indigenous movement against the corrupt governance and autocratic rule of Sheikh Abdullah. Externally, too, Kashmir has long been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan; the two countries have fought four wars over the valley. The insurgency has ruined the normal functioning of the state, and has forced New Delhi to notify the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) as a “disturbed area” and invoke powerful and stringent laws like the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) to maintain peace. Though New Delhi tried to occasionally reach out to Pakistan and even to Kashmiris over the years, but for some brief periods of hope, peace has not prevailed in the Kashmir Valley.

In the times of Modi Government

Following the precedent set by his predecessors, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also tried to reach out to Pakistan. For two years from his swearing-in ceremony in 2014, Modi made overtures to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict over Kashmir. He invited Nawaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, for his swearing-in ceremony, and made an unscheduled landing in Lahore on Christmas 2015 to greet his counterpart on his birthday—a move that defied diplomatic convention and stunned foreign policy experts.

However, the excitement over a possible turnaround in India-Pakistan relations was short-lived. The beginning of 2016 saw a terror attack on the Pathankot Air Force Station, involving five Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists. Months of tension followed the attack, escalating in the subsequent months after the killing of popular militant leader Burhan Wani in an anti-insurgency operation in August 2016. Within hours of the encounter, streets in South Kashmir became theatres of violent protests and stone-pelting. Burhan’s killing reignited the calls for azadi and jihad and opened the floodgates for homegrown insurgency, as scores of the local youth joined terror groups. Pakistan was quick to exploit the situation, stepping up infiltration of trained terrorists to carry out attacks on Indian military installations. The target of the first terror strike was the 12th Brigade of the Indian army in the Uri sector on 9 September 2016 in which 17 army personnel were killed and 20 others were injured. In response, India retaliated by conducting surgical strikes on suspected terror launchpads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

The escalated conflict in Kashmir created two situations. Amidst the fatigue of the past several decades and after trying out various unsuccessful ‘soft measures’ to mitigate the conflict, the state came hard on J&K – adopting measures such as the ‘Operation All-Out’ in its quest to establish peace. Second, the BJP-led government used the escalated conflict in the Valley as an excuse to fulfil the dream of its ideologue Shyama Prasad Mukherjee to abrogate Article 370 and Article 35A. Mukherjee, who died while leading a protest against the special status of J&K in 1953, had stressed that there cannot be two constitutions, two prime ministers, and two flags in one nation.

Abrogation of Article 370: Rationale and Immediate Impact

Article 370, over the decades, was diluted many times with the consent of the Kashmiris and the elected state government to facilitate integration, better administration and good governance. Despite these dilutions, however, Article 370 bore great symbolic and psychological significance for Kashmiris. It also displayed India’s asymmetric federalism, which granted differential rights to certain federal subunits, often in recognition of their distinctive ethnic identity.

Before the unilateral decision of New Delhi to abrogate Article 370 and split the state of J&K into two union territories, all pro-Pakistani Kashmiri politicians were arrested. Thousands of security personnel were sent in and the Valley was clamped down with severe and all-encompassing communications blackout. According to New Delhi, this “implemented constitutional transformation” was done to pave the way for better administration, good governance and economic development of the region. The government also said Article 370 was the root cause of corruption and militancy in the state of J&K.

According to official data, Kashmir witnessed 1,999 stone-pelting incidents in 2019 as compared to 1,458 in 2018 and 1,412 in 2017. According to recent estimates of the Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) headed by the Intelligence Bureau, 400 militants are active in the Valley, increasing the possibility of heightened insurgency activities in even the border districts of Rajouri-Poonch and Kishtwar. Alarmed, the government backed its 5 August decision by putting the entire region under an unprecedented high-security grid and a communications blackout.
Six months later, New Delhi seems less sure of its future steps. While the government – both through the office of the Lieutenant Governor in the newly carved Union Territory and at the Centre – has yet to conduct any proactive measures to regain the trust of the people and normalise the situation, even as its actions have dented India’s global image as a liberal democracy. The abrogation of Article 370 has also led to the internationalisation of the Kashmir conflict—an eventuality that the NDA government had resisted, claiming Kashmir to be India’s internal issue.

In the last few months, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has met two times for closed-door meetings on the situation in Kashmir. The US Congress has passed two house resolutions on Kashmir, condemning New Delhi’s decision. The House resolution No. 745 that was introduced in the House of Representatives last year by Indian-American representative Pramila Jayapal has gained 36 co-sponsors, 34 of whom belong to the Democratic Party and two, Republicans. This increased focus on the situation in Kashmir (from the UNSC and the US, in particular) has forced New Delhi to invite foreign diplomats and lawmakers to the Kashmir Valley on ‘fact-finding’ trips. The first one was in October 2019, when the government invited a group of European Union lawmakers to the Valley.

As international criticism mounted, the second group of foreign diplomats including the Ambassadors and High Commissioners to India of 15 nations were taken on an official visit to Jammu and Kashmir. They included diplomats from the US, South Korea, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Fiji, Maldives, Norway, the Philippines, Morocco, Argentina, Peru, Niger, Nigeria, Guyana and Togo. The diplomats of the European Union skipped the visit and insisted on meeting the detained political leaders on another date.

Today, life in Kashmir is slowly and steadily limping towards normalcy. However, the Valley stands in the midst of an uneasy calm that may explode at the slightest provocation from across the border.

Corruption and Governance

On 5 August 2019 when the Union home minister introduced the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill in the Raja Sabha, he said that the special status given to J&K under Article 370 was the root cause of corruption, terrorism, and alienation of the state. It is true that widespread and deep-rooted corruption in J&K has restricted the growth potential of the state, and at times, also posed national security threats. The “fake arms licences case”, that involved almost six States across India, is a testimony to this dangerous phenomenon. The policy of unconditional appeasement of regional political leaders by a succession of governments at the Centre has protected vested interests, trapping the Valley in an unending cycle of bad governance and corruption.

The farmers, in particular, highlighted the misery they experienced in selling their produce in the local markets run by the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Ltd (NAFED). There were two main reasons: the unseasonal snowfall in early November 2019 that destroyed their crop; and the threats made on their lives by the militants. For the militants any local Kashmiri carrying on life and business as usual after the abrogation of Article 370 was considered to be accepting the unilateral decision of New Delhi. This was not the case before the annulment of Article 370.

The Union Territory administration announced this untimely snowfall as a natural disaster, but there was complete inaction from the Centre. The silence of New Delhi on their plight have made the farmers feel cheated and only served to reinforce their perception that they had become “second-class citizens”. They now demand New Delhi to send a team to monitor the situation, assess the damages and announce due compensation as would have been done, they said, in any other region of India.

Raghav Langer, District Commissioner of Pulwama, in an interview with this author following the announcement of the natural calamity, claimed the UT administration made teams under respective Tahsildars to conduct on-farm inspection and assess the losses. However, farmers complain that the exercise was done carelessly and several affected villages were not assessed at all. Most farmers have no clue whether they will receive any compensation at all. Many farmers recounted that in 2018, too, only the rich and influential families were compensated for damaged orchards. Many farmers compared the current civil administration with the colonial rulers, bereft of professionalism and ethics.

Interestingly, salaries of all the employees of the UT administration were increased after 5 August, but they continue to work irresponsibly, with the same careless and highhanded attitude, said all the respondents. The trade union president of Pulwama district who was interviewed, referred to the staff of the Pulwama Municipal Committee and medical officers at the district hospital as “most notorious”. One of the most corrupt government organisations under the erstwhile state, the Pulwama Municipal Committee had, in the past, allowed rampant construction on canals and other such malpractices. The people feel that the bifurcation of the state into UTs will not make a dent in eradicating corruption.

Economy and Education

Core sectors of the economy of J&K have witnessed a steep decline after the abrogation of Article 370. Due to the communications blockade, curfews, and militant threats, in the past five months alone, the economy of Kashmir lost ₹178.78 billion and more than 90,000 jobs in the sectors of handicraft, tourism and information technology.

According to Ministry of Home Affairs’ (MHA) reply to a parliamentary panel on February 18, there are over 84,000 vacancies in J&K, of which 22,078 vacancies pertain to Class IV employees, 54,375 to non-gazettted and 7,552 vacancies at gazetted level.

The horticulture sector is in distress, tourism is in shambles, and students are suffering because of the ongoing internet blockade. It is for the first time in the past 70 years that rural Kashmir is facing such a great degree of economic slowdown. The apples industry in Kashmir, worth ₹ 80 billion which contributes eight percent of J&K’s GDP, has been worst affected. Threats from militants, coupled with the government’s severe clampdown delayed the harvest for over a month, dealing a crippling blow to the industry during the peak harvest season. By the time the government intervened and apple produce was procured and marketed by NAFED, the damage had been done. Much before this intervention, hundreds of farmers were forced to either sell their produce at throwaway prices or just watch their produce rot.

As per a latest MHA data, as many as 168 Memorandum of Understandings (MoU) worth ₹13,600 crores have been signed for investments in J&K.

According to a senior government official - The pace of recruitment in government sector slowed largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Before that, the UT officially came into existence only on October 31 last year, the day of the reorganisation .

A new land policy for purchase and acquisition of land was under construction and the administration had identified 6,000 acres of government land for setting up industries.
According to the President of Kashmir Chamber of Commerce, since August 5, trade and businesses in J&K had suffered a loss of ₹ 40,000 crore. J&K is a small economy, contributing only 0.77% to the GDP. It requires hand-holding from the government to bring the economy in the mainstream of the country.

According to reports, the ₹ 80,000-crore Prime Minister Development Package (PDMP) that was announced in 2015 had been accelerated, and out of total 63 projects, 17 have been completed so far.

In June 2018, only 7 projects of the PDMP were complete. By June this year, 17 have been completed and 49% funds exhausted. The J&K Infrastructure Development Finance Corporation (JKIDFC) had been set up to expedite incomplete projects pending for more than a decade and of the 2,273 projects (worth ₹5979 crore), 506 were complete, with another 963 projects (worth ₹2256 crores) expected to be completed by March, 2021.

The sanctioned houses under Prime Minister Awas Yojana had increased from 41% in March 2019 to 92% of the target sanctioned in June 2020. Of the sanctioned houses, 72,730 houses were in urban areas and 77, 252 in rural areas.

Hence it can be concluded that social sector development, economic revival, implementation of Swachh Bharat mission and skill development and employment were top priority for the government one year after the revocation and it has achieved moderate success.Kashmir’s economy was already fragile and the closing of shops and small businesses followed by lockdown triggered by COVID-19 made things hard for the businesses, both small and big.

Jammu and Kashmir (erstwhile) Lieutenant Governor GC Murmu’s recent statement that he has no objection in restoring 4G services in the Union Territory raised hopes of the restoration of high-speed internet in the Valley. However, after intelligence agencies said they had inputs that anti-national activities will increase over the coming weeks following which the Jammu and Kashmir administration extended the ban on 4G internet services till August 19.
Kashmiris should reject separatism and terrorism

While Kashmiris demand normalcy they need to reject separatism and terrorism if they seek constitutional guarantees from the Centre. They need to stop seeing Pakistan as their saviour as people living in PoK are a testimony to Islamabad’s brutalities.

Since 1947, Pakistan has been using all sorts of propaganda to foment trouble in the Valley. From Operation Gibraltar to the ongoing Operation Tupac, Pakistan is now dependent on the locals in the Valley to act against the Indian state.

From training Kashmiri youths, forcing Kashmiri Pandits to leave the Valley and to prepare Muslims for waging “Jihad” against India, Pakistan has been using the Kashmiris for a long time.

Kashmiris need to stop playing into the hands of the pro-Pakistani propaganda which is hell-bent on exploiting them emotionally and psychologically.

Top tier terrorists killed in J&K, decline in terror activities

Before August 5, 2019, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) deployed 300 companies in J&K and later another 200 companies were deployed. As per the latest figures, there has been a significant decline in terror activities in the valley.

According to a report by IANS, this year till July, a total of 120 terror-related cases were reported compared to 188 cases last year during the same period.

Similarly, this year till July, 35 security personnel lost their lives in the line of duty and last year during the same period 75 security personnel had lost their lives fighting terrorists.

Many top tier terrorists were killed including Riyaz Naikoo and Manan Wani from Hizbul Mujahideen have been eliminated.

According to IGP Kashmir, four Chiefs of main terror outfits were killed in four months.

Police has stopped handing over the bodies of slain terrorists to their families and has been burying them in remote areas to prevent funerals which are attended by thousands of locals and also serve as a potential recruitment ground for Pakistan-backed terrorist organizations.

Geelani's resignation from Hurriyat

Another blow for Pakistan was the resignation of Kashmiri separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani. Geelani who had floated Tehreek-e-Hurriyat in 2003 said he resigned due to "rebellion against leadership" by cadres.

Pakistan and the ISI expected Kashmiris to revolt against India following the abrogation of Article 370 but nothing happened.

J&K politicians were placed under detention after the Centre abrogated J&K’s special status under Article 370 and bifurcated the state.

While Farooq and Omar Abdullah, Sajad Lone, Shah Faisal have been released from detention, Mehbooba Mufti’s detention has been extended under the stringent Public Safety Act for another three months.

Pakistan’s crocodile tears for Kashmir

Rattled by India’s decision to abrogate Article 370, Pakistan has been trying to internationalize the issue but has failed on all fronts.

Few days back, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan released a new political map of the country showing J&K, Ladakh, Siachen, Sir Creek and Junagadh as Pakistani territory.
Rejecting the new map, India termed Pakistan’s assertions as “ridiculous” saying it neither had legal validity nor international credibility adding that this decision only confirms “reality of Pakistan's obsession with territorial aggrandisement supported by cross-border terrorism.”

In his statement, Khan has said that the new political map is against the BJP government’s August 5 decision.

From media campaign to protests abroad, Pakistan is celebrating the day as ‘Black Day’. This media blitz to target India is bound to fail.

Let’s not forget that similar attempts to highlight the “plight” of Kashmiris failed last year and Khan was humiliated when people in PoK’s Muzaffarabad greeted him with chants of “Go Niazi Go Back” and “Kashmir banega Hindustan”.

Since J&K became Union Territory on August 5, 2019, locals have shown that the people of Kashmir believe in peace and development, however, Pakistan is trying to activate all its proxies to create instability in the Union Territory.

On May 30, Lt General B.S. Raju, the general officer commanding of 15 Corps, and Dilbag Singh, director general of police, Jammu and Kashmir, chaired a high-level meeting in which top officials of the civil administration, intelligence agencies and security forces participated. Held at the 15 Corps headquarters in Badami Bagh, Srinagar, the meeting had an urgent agenda: to “review the security situation and ensure readiness to meet anticipated security challenges”. The trigger was the tension along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh. Sharing intelligence inputs, officials claimed the situation can lead to a rise in insurgency in the Kashmir Valley, with Pakistan trying to take advantage by keeping the Line of Control (LoC) simmering and cross-border militancy active. While reviewing the J&K security situation earlier on May 9 in New Delhi, National Security Advisor (NSA) AjitDoval had warned the forces to be prepared for a “hot summer”. This was soon after the CRPF lost six personnel in encounters in Handwara and Sopore.
Infiltration goes up every year as the snow begins to melt in early April, but army officials at the May 30 meeting expressed concern that the Ladakh stand-off has enhanced the challenge. The security forces recently foiled a Pulwama-like attack when they recovered a car laden with 40-45 kg of explosives. The forces also foiled an infiltration attempt at Naushera along the LoC by killing three militants and seizing a huge cache of arms.

Apart from a rise in violations along the LoC, the army and other security agencies are clear that they have to be prepared for full-blown insurgency in the Valley. Counter-terrorism expert AjaiSahni says the data does not suggest any increase in insurgency, ceasefire violations or fatalities among security forces. According to him, the security forces have suffered casualties in targeted operations initiated by them and not by militants.

However, observers based in Kashmir see a link between what is happening along the LAC and the rising insurgency in the Valley. They believe rising tension with the Chinese army in Ladakh, Pakistan government’s consistent statements on Kashmir, and the anger and disillusionment in the Valley have their roots in the August 5, 2019, decision of revoking Article 370 of the Constitution. They believe China has become a third party to the “Kashmir dispute” after the status quo was broken in J&K. They recall that soon after the revocation of Article 370, the Chinese mission’s spokesperson at the United Nations had called it a “unilateral action”, and said that “Kashmir is a dispute left from history” whose resolution should be based on the UN Security Council resolutions.

Later, in an extremely rare case, for the first time since 1971, the Security Council held “informal consultations” on Kashmir behind closed doors at the behest of China. Even though no statements were issued at the end of the meeting, China had made its position clear.

However, experts and army officials dismiss any suggestion of a coordinated attempt by China and Pakistan to foment trouble in J&K and Ladakh, but they do not rule out the high potential of both exploiting the situation and achieving a collaboration in the future. Lt General (retd) D.S. Hooda, who oversaw the 2016 surgical strikes as the Northern Army Commander, does not see “a big pincer move” by Pakistan and China as of now, but does not rule out the possibility that it “may well happen later”. According to him Pakistan will definitely try to take advantage of the situation in Ladakh, but insists there is no need to fear that the troop deployment may spread thin because of the army’s expanding commitment along the China border.