The geopolitical and economic rise of Asia

(MiansGS2:Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.)

Context:

• Amidst all the tectonic shifts around the world, what appears to be a certainty is the emergence of an Asia-centric century.
• For India, the rise of the Asian century might turn out to be too steeped in harsh realpolitik for its comfort.

Geopolitical contestations of an Asian century:

• The geopolitical and economic rise of Asia coincides with several regional and global developments which have the potential to undermine the stability and prosperity India had hoped an Asian century would bring. 
• The withdrawal of the U.S. from much of continental Asia and the aggressive rise of China and the Ukraine war appear to have ended the great power concert in Asia, or what appeared as one for some time. 
• Today, two major powers i.e. Russia and China are trying to undermine the global balance of power, with several regional powers such as Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in tow. 
• Asia may be headed towards more global prominence, but instability will be its possessive partner.

Towards multipolarity:

• A multipolar world/Asia with new and shifting alliances; formal, informal, secret, open and in-between pacts; and competing coalitions vying for dominance will invariably take away from the relative ‘stability’ of the current world order where the power of the U.S. is on the decline and that of China is (still) on the rise.
• For India, multipolarity is one premised on the rule of law or peaceful coexistence as India values a multipolar international order, underpinned by international law, premised upon respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, resolution of international disputes through peaceful negotiations, and free and open access for all to the global commons. 
• One of the likely implications of a multipolar world in which Asia takes the centre stage would be a sharpening of opposition against the current global financial order.

India ’s dilemmas:

• New Delhi has consistently campaigned for a multipolar world where key Asian powers have a place at the high table of international politics but it may hesitate to engage the emergent Asian century for various reasons.
• While it believes in a more democratic, orderly and rules-based world order, it recognises that major systemic changes could also be accompanied by chaos. 
• New Delhi, therefore, likes slow, peaceful and consensual transformation of the system which, of course, is not what is happening today.  
• New Delhi’s biggest fear would be an Asian century without stable multipolarity as a multipolar world is most likely going to be a passing phenomenon, to be soon replaced by a bipolar world dominated by the U.S. and China with the others bandwagoning, balancing and hedging.

Conclusion:

• In Asia, differences will centre on overlapping priorities i.e. security (the U.S.’s efforts to maintain hegemony), economic (China’s emphasis on connectivity, markets and growth) and equitable sustainable development (India-led framework of digital infrastructure designed as a public good).